Experts Predict Another Revolution in
Ukraine in Spring of 2016
Autotranslated with minor editing by Quemado Institute
December 7, 2015
According to experts, During the upcoming spring in Ukraine there may occur a powerful “social explosion”. Dissatisfied with the situation in the country, people will take to the streets again. To save the situation, serious reform and a change of government officials are needed, for which the political elite is apparently not ready.
“A difficult period will be in February and May 2016, when the people will have survived the winter, paying exorbitant housing prices, the economy will continue to shrink, falling incomes, and prices rise. The chance of a social explosion in this period is estimated at 60%,” Tass was told by Director of the Institute of Ukrainian politics Ruslan Bortnik.
In turn, the Ukrainian political scientist Kirill Molchanov, said Tass, expressed the view that a new “Maidan” is possible, because now there is such situation when the lower classes so on cannot live, and the top officials do not want to change anything.
“In view of what has been lost in one and a half years, and no reform has been undertaken, the credit support of the people falls, as a result, we are entering a cold winter with high utility rates, so any Maidan can begin after some daring provocation,” the expert believes.
However, according to Molchanov, excluding social in favor of another protest can play also other factors. “The turmoil may be associated with an external factor, ie a factor of Donbass and the Crimea: in view of the situation in the zone of ATO may be seething in Kiev, as the right-wing radicals are dissatisfied with the course of the president on military doctrine. We brewing a bad cocktail, where there is an economic component – there is no improvement of life in connection with the reforms, social – 30 percent of Ukrainians in poverty, and the military aspect,” he concluded.
Ukrainians protest mood in the fall reached the level of “Maidan” 2013-2014. Thus, according to a recent poll conducted by the sociological group “Rating”, more than half of respondents – 53% – said they would take to the streets in case of deterioration of the social situation of people. Only 28% of respondents are willing to endure financial difficulties for the sake of peace in the country.
Recently, concern about possible unrest in the state expressed once part of the ten richest Ukrainians, businessman, ex-governor of the Donetsk region, Sergei Taruta, who said that prior to the economic collapse of Ukraine left for 6 to 8 months. “The economic model shows that we have half a year, a maximum of 8 months. And it provided that during this time we change something,” he said “Ukrainian Truth “. According to him, currently the likelihood of an optimistic scenario for Ukraine is only 5%. “And in order to implement these 5%, you need to match such a large number of positive factors. But everything else – or collapse, or the freezing of economic,” says the oligarch.
The latter, he added, will entail a social explosion, as if before the people were just unhappy, but now they are “aggressive and angry.”
“If oligarchs are sitting in their luxury cars, flying on its planes and living in villas, they see that it would be a social explosion, you are likely to say that it will. Or will the collapse of the political system and social explosion,” commented on the statement Taruta Bortnik.
This week the Ministry of Finance published the draft state budget for 2016, which is possible only inflame discontent with ordinary people.
According to the leader of the public movement “Ukrainian choice” Viktor Medvedchuk, the budget “establishes the state of poverty and even the extreme poverty of the majority of Ukrainians.” Thus, according to Medvedchuk, a slight increase of social standards will not improve the lives of Ukrainians. In the budget there is a minimal increase in the minimum subsistence level – by 12% from 1330 to 1496 hryvnia (about $ 57.6 – $ 64.8 at the current rate), for a total of 172 hryvnia (about $ 7.5 at current exchange rates).
However, if you examine the forecasts of inflation in 2016, it becomes clear: a real increase in social standards would not, argues Medvedchuk. “Ukrainians threatens not even poverty, but a real poverty, and their struggle for survival becomes more desperate. And the 2016 budget, in effect, the law establishes that “, – summed up the public man.
One little problem
For any social conflict, as noted Bortnik, “you need three components: public opinion leaders that are trusted by this opinion, and money, which is hyping public opinion and of the leaders in the media.” According to the analyst, Ukraine, for a social explosion is only one component – public opinion. “Leaders who have trust, no. Leaders who appear from time to time, for example, Tatiana Montyan (lawyer, public figure), the government successfully discredited. The main challenge now political strategists authorities – to prevent the creation of alternatives,” said the expert, adding that the leaders may still appear “throughout this winter.”
The monetary component of the same, according to him, depends on the goodwill of the oligarchs. “While none of the oligarchs would not risk to a direct conflict with the government, did not dare to provide media platforms and financial resources for this protest. Trying this was – from the military-political group “Privat” (co-owner is the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky), but it ended with the detention of Gennady Korban (head of the party “Dill” associate Kolomoisky) and the defeat of the political group “- he recalled.
Predprotestnoy way out of this situation, according to the oligarch Taruta, maybe resignation of the current government and the formation of a technical cabinet to do with politics. “Who will try to reformat the existing structure, change the ministers, but do not change the system. My understanding – for technical government composed of technocrats, whose main task – to stabilize the situation, to keep at least that is. But the probability of this is not much,” he believes.
About the need to replace the first persons indicated by the results of public opinion. Over the past six months, the level of support for the idea of the dissolution of parliament and new elections of deputies increased from 34% to 47%, the idea of the appointment of new presidential elections – from 31% to 43%. About high probability of formation of all necessary conditions for the early parliamentary elections in Ukraine and said Bortnik. “It is very likely collapse of the coalition and an attempt to curb the political projects of individual protest potential to play the next political cycle, so it is very likely the formation of all the conditions for early parliamentary elections,” – he said.
If a revolution, it will be spontaneous
“By the spring ratings of President fall, handling the political and administrative system, too, there are oligarchs, who will run with this drowning ship and put on a new proest on the new political leaders who provide their resources in the next political cycle”, – predicts Bortnik. At the same time, according to Molchanov, for this requires a powerful social protest provocation. “If there is any provocation in the near future, I do not rule out that everything will unwind as the events that were two years ago. As a result, it can lead not only to the “Maidan” and a big coup with great sacrifice,” he warned. The situation, according to Molchanov, “may develop spontaneously: there will be no students, tents, songs Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (leader of the group “Okean Elzy”), it will be two or three days, and the spokesman of the revolutionary masses will take the stage, the crowd itself will make someone the top,” concluded the expert.
(Source: Russkaya Vesna)