Monthly Archives: August 2015

Kiev Misinformation Campaign Soars to Thriller Heights

by Karl Pomeroy
Quemado Institute
August 29, 2015

Carl Bildt (rixstep.com)

Carl Bildt (rixstep.com)

This time, the enemy misinformation campaign has exceeded itself in imaginative fantasy. The creative detail is staggering. Not only have the lunatic fabricators hallucinated “Russian troops in Donbass”, they have materialized out of a pure fairy dust a tale of a parallel world, a world in which an entire Russian army, complete with a complex command structure, comprises 60% of the fighting forces in Donbass.

Observers have pointed out many times that if the Russian army were in Donbass, they would march to Kiev in a day. Now Kiev script writers have turned this fact on its head, saying, “Needless to add, the ‘DNR’ and ‘LNR’ militaries would not last twenty-four hours without constant command and logistical support from Putin’s military.” Well, the militias have lasted a year and a half, so that puts an end to that story. Moreover, were the Russian army in Donbass, there would be obvious overwhelming evidence. There is not a shred of evidence, because the Russian army isn’t there. Fabrication does not constitute evidence.

Petro Poroshenko’s ego cannot tolerate that his own army has been defeated by the local but highly motivated Novorossiya Armed Forces, consisting of DPR and LPR militias and a small contingent of foreign volunteers.

It was not good enough for Poroshenko to say 50,000 Russian official troops were in Donbass. He has escalated this absurdity to the level of specifics that is the stuff of psychedelic dreams. It does not change reality. But it may boost the level of military support from NATO and other European countries.

That is the danger of misinformation.

This article would not have caught my attention, and might have been dismissed as a bizarre novelty, were it not for the fact that it was posted on Twitter by none other than Carl Bildt. According to Wikipedia, Bildt, together with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, is one of the main architects of the Eastern policy of the EU.[ Stefan Hedlund, professor at Uppsala University, stated that “Carl Bildt’s threatening rhetoric should in this context be regarded as extremely destructive”, in an article about the Ukrainian crisis. Hedlund also suggested that Bildt should take a “time-out”, and that progress can only be made through dialogue with Russia.

Perhaps no one takes this fool seriously.

The following article of fiction, posted by Bildt, has been appearing all over Twitter. Let’s hope nobody with any clout falls for it.

Russia’s “Secret” Army in Ukraine

August 28, 2015

Today the office of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko released via Twitter important details about the organization and structure of Russia’s occupying army in Southeastern Ukraine. The order of battle (ORBAT) information is clearly derived from a lot of intelligence, especially SIGINT (I say this as someone who used to do ORBAT intelligence for a living: this is well done).

Since most of my readers know neither Russian or Ukrainian, I’m passing on what Kyiv has released today in English. The translation isn’t great but it works. I’m providing comments below since most normals are not well acquainted with the nuances of Russian military organization.

Russian Military Command, South-East Ukraine (Novocherkask):

Commanding Officer (CO): GenCol A N. Serdyukov [1]

1st Army Corps (“Donetsk People’s Republic” Military), HQ: Donetsk

CO: GenMaj A.V. Zavizyon [2]

CNgU3PPWoAAJrRK

2nd Army Corps (“Luhansk People’s Republic” Military), HQ: Luhansk

CO: GenMaj Y. V. Nikiforov [3]

CNgU3GbWgAAL3oP

The organization of the 1st and 2nd Corps, no surprise, corresponds exactly to the standard tables of organization and equipment (TO&E) of Russian Ground Forces. There are several maneuver brigades (“motor rifle” is the Russian term for mechanized in NATO parlance) supported by independent regiments and battalions. As Kyiv has announced, the 35,000 troops belonging to “DNR” and “LNR” forces are bolstered by 9,000 reservists. While some forty percent of the troops are locals, the rest are Russians plus a few mercenaries and foreign volunteers.

The senior command staff are exclusively Russian officers assigned to the 1st and 2nd Corps — officially they are “not there” of course — while the operation is run, logistically and command-wise, from neighboring Russia.

To anybody with a decent memory, this closely resembles the relationship during the 1992-95 Bosnian War, when the Bosnian Serb Army (VRS), while consisting largely of local rank-and-file troops, had most of its command, and nearly all of its financing and logistics, coming from neighboring Serbia and its military — which, in practice treated the VRS as merely as an extension of itself, as in fact it was.

Needless to add, the “DNR” and “LNR” militaries would not last twenty-four hours without constant command and logistical support from Putin’s military. They are an extension of Russian Ground Forces and should be treated as such by the West. It’s time to end, once and for all, any fiction about “rebels” — these are Russian-controlled forces, led by Russian officers, supplied with Russian guns and ammunition, that are waging war inside Ukraine.

Kudos to Kyiv for putting this important information out there as an aid to understanding what’s really going on in their country.

Comments:

1. AKA Sedov; GenCol is a Russian “three-star” rank.

2. AKA Pilen; GenMaj is a Russian “one-star” rank.

3. AKA Morgun; GenMaj is a Russian “one-star” rank.

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Janus Putkonen: Finnish Journalist Returns to Donbass

Janus Putkonen: “We must build a Mannerheim line”
by Laurent Brayard

Novorossia Vision
Autotranslated from French by Quemado Institute
August 27, 2015

Janus Putkonen

Janus Putkonen

Janus Putkonen is Finnish, born in a small town in Pernaja name in 1974. Coming from a family tied to the arts, particularly theater, he became director and screenwriter Porvoo theater on the shores of the Baltic. There is therefore predisposed to begin a career in the media to a political awareness in the mid 90. On that date, it includes in the great dance of the international media that something “wrong”. This realization led him to work quickly in the communication and in the media. It naturally be based alternative media in his country but in the Donbass finally born in his head a vast project: DONI group.

When asked about his commitment to the Donbass, Janus said he did not know much about Russia, except as a tourist and he does not practice the Russian language. However, having felt that the cause of Novorossia was much more complex and that something was behind the eagerness of the media, he decided to go there in March 2015. As he himself said, “it was a real shock, the eve of my departure after this immersive stay, it was very difficult, I did not want to leave and I could not sleep. So I promised myself that night to come back, what I understood was too important. ” As many independent journalists came here, far from the mass media circuit, Janus was terrified by the situation of Donbass and the huge stakes of this war. He explains that before his arrival, he had already realized that manipulation and lies were at work around the events of the Maidan and the war against the insurgents Ukraine Donbass. His coming in the midst of the inhabitants, however, was a revelation, leading him to the obvious: we had to come back.

His promise was kept, after having taken the necessary contacts with various investors and sponsors, he hastened to return: “I intend to stay here, even forever! In Finland I was warned that if I went, I was under the threat of arrest and an eight-year prison sentence. ” The affirmation thrilled, but very real. Finland is indeed a member of the European Union since 1995 and if it is not a member of NATO, it actively collaborates with the organization by signing a partnership signed in 1994 and entered as a member the Council of Euro-Atlantic Partnership 1997 http://www.nato.int/cps/fr/natohq/topics_49594.htm. Traditionally non-aligned before these signatures, the Finnish neutrality is therefore hypothetical and facade. Despite the statements of the Prime Minister of Finland Alexander Stubb, December 19, 2014, that the NATO membership of their country was to require a referendum, it is clear that Finland is under pressure from the Atlanticist countries and especially the mighty America. http://www.geolinks.fr/grands-enjeux/les-enjeux-geopolitiques/la-finlande-et-lotan-la-problematique-adhesion/ .

Given this situation, it naturally peaceful Finnish people is shared. The difficult history of Finland with Russia has always led this courageous people to mistrust the powerful and sometimes turbulent neighbor. In Finland the collective memory keeps a bitter memory of the Russo-Finnish Winter War of 1939-1940 and the struggle during the Russian Civil War to snatch its independence from the Bolshevik already quite engaged in a Soviet imperialism. Janus however not be of those who fell in a simplistic and massive propaganda. After contacting various investors immediately after his first trip in the Donbass, he gathered enough funds to embark on the adventure and arrives again in the Donbass. After gathering a small international team, but also local and activists such as the famous American Russel Texas Bentley, he founded the foundation of the agency, with DNINews.com, DNIPress.com, and finally ProDonbass.com SaveDonbassPeople.info http://dninews.com/.

“We must build a line of defense of information, in the image of the Mannerheim line. The problem in Europe is that we are under the influence of propaganda aimed to subjugate the peoples of Europe to a system that is actually the enemy of all European and Western nations. We must win this battle. Often Russian-speaking media is more just in the West, but the problem lies in the fact that the idea of ​​the people all that comes from Russia or the Russian-speaking world is a propaganda. Then I had the idea of ​​an independent agency, which would be the heart of the Donbass, a hotbed of resistance, both to help the Donbass, to help its people, but also to start building this line. We communicate for now only in English, the most commonly used language in the world, but the long-term project is to communicate in all important languages. While initially we will focus on re inform the Donbass, the ambition is to understand the information in the world.”

In fact the project is already well underway, they are very numerous as already effective launch of Radio Free Donbass, the organization of Press Tour to Western journalists, charity concerts directly in the Donbass or the delivery of humanitarian aid to the people, vulnerable people, wounded, children or elderly. Already surrounded by a dozen employees, the Mannerheim line is already under construction. All this promises a bright future for alternative media whose noble and laudable goal shows that exists throughout the European continent, the intelligences who understand that peace and happiness of the peoples and nations of Europe are never put through consolidation the current European Union, the European Fourth Reich.

Poroshenko Preparing Blitzkrieg in Donbass

Poroshenko Preparing Blitzkrieg in Donbass
by Viktor Baranets

Komsomolskaya Pravda
Autotranslation
August 24, 2015

Ukraine military readiness, August 24, 2015. (Click to enlarge.)

Ukraine military readiness, August 24, 2015. (Click to enlarge.)

A few days ago the deputy commander of the Ministry of Defence housing Donetsk People’s Republic (DNI) Eduard Eduard Basurin held a briefing where spoke about one of the most probable (according to his staff) versions of the expected onset of the Ukrainian army. According to the map, which showed reporters Eduard Basurin, intelligence Donetsk corps managed to get a lot of data about the number of troops and military equipment Square in the south-east areas of their deployment, about the nature of “gestures” Ukrainian units and on the front, and in the rear. All this (and much more, including radio intercepts, the testimony of defectors and obtained documents) and allowed the corps headquarters to “read” the basic designs of the enemy.

SIGNS OF WAR

In recent months, Ukrainian group Donbass intensively built up on personnel, military equipment and ammunition. Day and night are brought reinforcements projectiles: bombs and provisions by rail from the city of Kharkiv Raisins and then machines all forwarded to the “front line”. All this – the sure signs of a large-scale training operation. Announced the next mobilization. Military using the local population Stakhanov pace built almost 600 kilometers and the “three-layer” barrier, which consists of nearly 300 points of support, – where, according to its configuration, it is made in such a way that after Cleave Ukrainian army units Donetsk troops would be forced to to retreat towards the Russian border, where they will grind and machine guns and guns entrenched in concrete fortresses Ukrainian fighters. At the same time the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ordered the army and the National Guard to prepare a thorough line of defense along the border with the Crimea – has dug dozens of kilometers of trenches and ditches (along which several rows of stretched barbed wire), the same is equipped with a myriad of machine-gun nests, the land along the border Sappers densely bustles mines. All this is done clearly on the case to the aid of Donetsk and Lugansk units rush Crimeans. Moreover, to cover the borders of Crimea (which can be seen on the map shown Eduard Basurin) set up a special group of forces. Intensely driven into a state of high alert fighter and ground attack aircraft the Air Force of Ukraine. Counterintelligence DNI and LC in recent months, more and more catches in the territory of their own republics infiltrators “on the side”, which is also – a clear sign of preparation of the Ukrainian security forces for combat operations.

Until the end, the Ukrainian government security officials put more than 300 armored vehicles, 400 cars, 30 thousand rockets and ammunition, as well as more than 12 thousand units of small arms.

What are the plans in UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF

When you look at the map Eduard Basurin – the first thing you catch yourself thinking that the Ukrainian General Staff obviously there are people who are trying to replicate the experience of warfare during World War II, when Hitler’s generals initially managed to dissect large group of Red Army troops and to organize they “boilers” (true, then the Red Army, have learned the bitter lessons of a much more successful “cooked” the Nazi hordes in the same “pot”). Why, the DNI and the troops showed a brilliant example of this tactic when arranged the Kiev junta Ilovaiskaya defeat in the “pot”. It seems that subordinates of General Victor Muzhenko (Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) decided to “make” a similar scenario. Judging by the blue arrows on the map Eduard Basurin, Ukrainian troops are preparing Cleave between Donetsk and Luhansk to dismember militia groups, a part of the forces to lock them in the capital, and another to organize “ticks” for the armed forces ‘separatist’, which in the case of adverse developments will rush to the border with Russia. Where they obviously conspired to cut waste. This is indicated by the edge of one of the blue arrows, which abuts the Uspenka – checkpoint on the Russian-Ukrainian border. It seems that there, according to the logic of command shell militia should leave the army junta, simultaneously capturing and Ilovaysk Shahtersk. After surrounding the Donetsk and Lugansk, we can expect the onset of Ukrainian troops from Mariupol to Novoazovsk. To regain control over the strategically important for Kiev Azov Sea coast – has long been the undisguised aim of Poroshenko and his clique.

The grouping of the Ukrainian Army in the south-east (with the armed detachments of the National Guard and Right), which is still a couple of months was estimated at 65 thousand people, has now become more than 25-30 thousand people. A couple of days ago with great Ponte Poroshenko gave his troops a new multiple launch rocket systems “Grad”. Clearly, not for plowing fields for winter …

The headquarters of the Donetsk and Lugansk groupings of data on the number of his troops, of course, did not disclose. According to the Ukrainian General Staff intelligence agencies, the number of infantry at the “separatists” does not exceed 40 thousand. Man. But in the case of general mobilization, they can double and triple its staff. Stocks of arms and ammunition recovered from the enemy, they will be enough at all. As armored vehicles (tanks and APCs) and artillery militia too far behind Ukrainian security officials. While many fights showed that Suvorov covenant “war is not the number and skill” Donetsk residents have learned to “excellent.” In addition, they have a great military experience and high morale. And many bad shelled 18-year-old “children”, which Poroshenko throws into the fight, have no such experience. And even to war many officers and soldiers of the Ukrainian army did not burn with the desire to expose the forehead by a bullet of a fratricidal war. Nearly 10 thousand. Deserters from the ranks of Ukrainian security officials say a lot …

But even with the double superiority in manpower and far more significant – in military equipment, the blitzkrieg from Kiev is unlikely to succeed. Having “hot spot” of success upon the occurrence of two or three cities, the army is inevitably mired in a protracted battle, and then will get back to guerilla strikes. Donetsk residents are able to “grind” the occupiers …

FUNERAL Minsk Agreement

If the Ukrainian army will deploy a combat operation, it immediately would mean that Kiev finally turned distressful Minsk agreement toilet paper. Already leak information that is going to convince Berlin Poroshenko Merkel and Hollande in the “correctness” of the radical and power solutions. Hard to believe that the guarantor of the Minsk Agreement agree. For political rating of German Chancellor and French President immediately drop to the price of rotten potatoes. As aptly said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Poroshenko in Berlin, most likely will be “educational nature”. №2 The civil war in the south-east of Ukraine – are not in the interest of tired of the protracted conflict and antisanktsy Europe. Already it reached the point that even the US State Department, always tenderly stroked on the head Poroshenko – and he warns him that he did not “bury”. But much like that Ukrainian President “bit between his teeth”: trying to drag his country into a new war, he is trying to prolong the agony of its power, and along with ritual attributed blame for the deep economic crisis in the “separatists” and, of course – to Russia. He still fooling its people demagogic slogans of “United Ukraine”, although flatly refuses to negotiate with the obstinate Donbas. New War to Poroshenko, this is another attempt to achieve its cherished goal – to draw Russia into Ukrainian mezhduusobits and attributed to it all the ills of the country. But there is a strong likelihood that the adventurous idea put an end to the political fate of the chocolate tycoon greatly multiply their revenues in the blood of their fellow citizens.